The “Best” Of 2011

Thursday 8 December 2011 - Filed under music

Or: anything to get those MLB posts off the front page as quickly as possible.

This would be a longer post, but it’s late, I’m tired, and et cetera.  So (for now), in brief: in keeping with one of the hottest trends to hit the music critic Twittersphere, I have created a Spotify playlist that covers some of the music I liked from this year.  It’s not remotely comprehensive, it’s certainly not definitive (from a personal perspective); hell, it doesn’t even feature most of my favorite tracks (partially due to Spotify missing some folks I was hoping to include).  But it’s (hopefully) a semi-cohesive snapshot of what my year in music kinda sorta was.  Here’s the link to it, and (if you’re not feeling quite so adventurous as to click on a blind link), here’s what’s in it (with links to stuff I might’ve written about the folks in question, where possible):

1. Wye Oak – The Alter (from Civilian)
2. The Joy Formidable – Buoy (from The Big Roar)
3. Whatever Brains – The Future of Porn (from Whatever Brains)
4. All Tiny Creatures – Tine Feature (from Harbor)
5. Twin Sister – Stop (from In Heaven)
6. Katy B – Disappear (from On A Mission)
7. Oneohtrix Point Never – Remember (from Replica)
8. Prurient – Watch Silently (from Bermuda Drain)
9. The Men – Lotus (from Leave Home)
10. Liturgy – Returner (from Aesthetica)
11. Cult of Youth – The Lamb (from Cult of Youth)
12. Marissa Nadler – The Sun Always Reminds Me Of You (from Marissa Nadler)
13. Widowspeak – Hard Times (from Widowspeak)
14. Chelsea Wolfe – Friedrichshain (from Apokalypsis)
15. Fucked Up – The Other Shoe (from David Comes To Life)
16. Foo Fighters – White Limo (from Wasting Light)
17. Cheveu – Quattro Stagioni (from 1000)
18. Stricken City – I Know A Place (from Losing Colour)
19. Zola Jesus – Skin (from Conatus)
20. Vessels – Monoform (from Helioscope)

More (hopefully) to come!

 ::  Share or discuss  ::  2011-12-08  ::  David Raposa

2011 World Series: Texas vs. St. Louis

Wednesday 19 October 2011 - Filed under sports

Albert needs to work on his Beast Mode pose.

The Cardinals had one starter last into the 6th inning against the Milwaukee Brewers, and were the beneficiaries of both some spectacularly awful Brewers defense and the best week-plus of David Freese’s life. Of course I’m going to pick against them. Again. Even if Texas’ addition of a 3rd catcher (Matt Treanor) at the expense of some bullpen depth (Koji Uehara) for this World Series seems like the sort of roster move the micro-manager on the NL side of the field would indulge in. And even if Ron Washington’s shown he’s more than likely to one-up Tony LaRussa when it comes to being “strategic,” when Washington has the perfect “set it and forget it” line-up. And even if Washington’s going to continue using Derek Holland out of the rotation, instead of giving Alexi Ogando a well-deserved (and, at this point, probably necessary) shot. Either way, Texas is going to be stuck sending three lefty starters to the hill against two switch-hitters (Furcal & Berkman) and at least four highly competent right-handed hitters (Pujols, Holliday, Freese, and Molina). If that’s the case, why not start the three most effective ones, instead of the two good ones and a third that hasn’t pitched well yet this post-season?

Of course, the Rangers’ line-up won’t be a cakewalk, especially if the starting staff performs the same disappearing act they pulled against Milwaukee. Assuming Wash knows what’s good for the team, the lack of a DH in over half the series games means the guy that’ll sit during NL games will be everyman / Jeterian incumbent Michael Young. His prospective absence during most of these games might explain the tonguebaths this thoroughly professional yet over-valued has received since the Rangers clinched their 2nd consecutive AL pennant. (After all, crediting the two key off-season acquisitions, and their combined 62 HRs, for the Rangers’ success wouldn’t do, right? Nah, let’s give it up to the high-average, low-power utility guy with the decreased defensive efficacy that spent the pre-season whining about his PT. Even if he was the only non-Cruz to homer for Texas against the Tigers.)

As much as it is an open secret that my distatste for the Cult of LaRussa knows no bounds, he’s done a remarkable job this year, especially in the post-season, and especially with his bullpen. Given how much work they had to do during the NLCS, adding Jake Westbrook to the roster as the 8th guy makes perfect sense, even if it’s only a token gesture. Still, it’s doubtful the Cardinals will be able to duct-tape and chewing-gum together another batch of McGuyver-esque relief magic if Chris Carpenter’s the only guy they have that can get 18 outs. And if, as I’ve seen suggested in some corners, Westbrook’s addition means there might be some issues with Carpenter, then there’s little chance the Cardinals will be able to make this series competitive. The Brewers had a pretty good line-up; even with a pitcher in place of Young, the Rangers make the Brewers look like the Mariners. Still, I have faith that Ron Washington will keep the Cardinals in more games than necessary due to either a slow hook with a flailing starter (hello Mr. Holland) or excessive small-ball chicanery, even if I have an equal amount of faith that Texas’ abundance of talent will overcome those shortcomings. I’ll give the Cards one Carp start and one slug-fest (you can guess against which Ranger starter), but I’ll give the World Series trophy to TEXAS IN SIX.

 ::  Share or discuss  ::  2011-10-19  ::  David Raposa

2011 NLCS: St. Louis vs. Milwaukee

Sunday 9 October 2011 - Filed under sports

Pictured here: a Yuniesky Betancourt home run. Savor it.

C’mon, really?  The Team of Destiny, getting past the presumptive NL World Series squad to continue some fairy-tale playoff run?  And getting bulletin-board material from every possible area of the team (Tony Plush, sure, but GRIENKE?!?!)n in order to fuel their run?  Well, if you realize that this “underdog” is actually better than the team that started the year, and they have all their players (nominally) healthy, then, sure, they’re an underdog. And if you look at the actual NL Central winner — yeah bratwurst! — and notice that one of their rotational stalwarts (Shaun Marcum) has been scuffling mightily during the back end of the season, then that 9-9 head-to-head record doesn’t seem to mean all that much.

So I’m going to be boring, and obvious, and say that home field advantage is going to be key.  That might be in part because of Milwaukee’s ridiculous home / road splits, which came to bear in the NLDS against Arizona) (though starting a weary Marcum and a mediocre Randy Wolf might’ve had a bit more to do with that outcome).  For those keeping score, St. Louis had the same record – 45-36 – home and away.  But, again, this Cardinals team was scuffling throughout most of the season.  Now this team has their ace back and healthy (Chris Carpenter), their three big boppers back and healthy (Pujols / Berkman / Holliday), some downcard hitters that are just as important (Furcal and Freese), and that mean-so-much momentum.  And the “underdog” mojo.  Despite being one of the best teams in the NL for the past 5 years.  Meanwhile, the Brewers have a similar configuration, except I’d say they have two potential aces (Grienke and Gallardo), and while they only have the two big bats (Fielder and Braun), they have a little more overall depth in their line-up.  And while the Brewers have the stronger bullpen, LaRussa’s matchup OCD might make that a wash. But it was also LaRussa being LaRussa that forced a tiring Kyle Loshe to throw cookies to Ryan Howard back in Game 1.  Then again, Ron Roenicke’s ride-it-out approach with his starters down in Arizona made that series much closer than it needed to be.

So, if you assume that all these pros and cons wash out — as they seem to — then it’s back to the not-so-analytical tact of picking the team with home field advantage.  And that, as already mentioned, is the Milwaukee Brewers.  If the projected starter schedule holds up, then this series will feature three outright laughers (especially that Wolf / Loshe tilt) (still not a Loshe believe, in case you’re wondering) and four pitching duels, including a Game 7 throwdown between Carpenter and Gallardo for all the slamma-lamma-ding-dongs.  Even if I wasn’t picking BREWERS IN SEVEN, I’d be rooting for that matchup every which way.

 ::  Share or discuss  ::  2011-10-09  ::  David Raposa

2011 ALCS: Detroit vs. Texas

Saturday 8 October 2011 - Filed under sports

Chris Davis: Never Forget

Since I did such a bang-up job picking the Yankees and Rays to win each of their series in five games, I figured it’d only be right to turn such unerring accuracy and unfailing insight on the actual ALCS opponents.

During the regular season, the Tigers actually took six out of nine from the Rangers, none of them won by Justin Verlander; he only started once against Texas, back in April, and lost 2-0 to Alexis Ogando. Coincidentally enough, this showdown could feature only one Verlander start and three Ogando wins (albeit three bullpen wins), though it’s most like that Detroit’s Game 1 starter will come back on 3 days rest to try and keep the Tigers’ hopes alive in Game 4.

Of course, anything can happen in a short series, like Delmon Young hitting three homers in a five-game series, or Adrian Beltre hitting three homers in one series-clinching game. I guess folks are chalking up the Tigers’ win against New York to playing “team baseball,” which is a nice way of saying that the only guys that hit a darn in that series for Detroit were the aforementioned Mr. Young, Don Kelly, and Magglio Ordonez.

There’s also Brandon Inge’s three-for-seven to consider as well, but hopefully Jim Leyland won’t really consider that a reason to give Inge any more PT than he has so far this post-season. The Rangers are, like in their ALDS win, slated to start two righties and two lefties [or three lefties and one righty, as a helpful / dickish comment-maker noted - ed], which means (barring another rain postponement), Inge and Wilson Betemit will share time at the hot corner swinging their bats against the side they do the most damage against.

There’s always a chance he could also pencil in Don Kelly’s name at 3B for the duration of the series, like he did in Game 5, but with Young actually off the roster (due to a Game 5 injury), Kelly’s liable to see his time spent running around the outfield, sharing time with Ryan Raburn and Ordonez in either corner. Getting someone to spell Austin Jackson would be prudent, but for all of Leyland’s willingness to switch things up, it’d take something calamitous to get him to replace Jackson’s speed in the OF. (You might want to bump him down in the order, though, Jim. Just a suggestion.)

With the Rangers against the Rays, I figured the Rays’ right-handed hitters would have all sorts of fun banging Derek Holland and Matt Harrison around the ballpark. So, of course, it turned out to be CJ Wilson – the best of the three Rangers’ leftie starters – that Tampa Bay repeatedly took deep. Holland almost spit the bit, but James Shields was too busy doing worse to let that make any sort of difference. With the Tigers’ right-sided sock limited to one really good hitter (you know) and Jhonny Peralta, there’s even less of a chance that Texas’ lefty-heavy pitching staff will cause any problems.

Between that, and the top-to-bottom strength of the Rangers line-up, it’s no wonder most folks are picking the Rangers to defend their American League Championship. The Tigers need both Verlander and Fister to pitch to their utmost abilities, in order to keep their tightrope-walking bullpen from causing any issues. The Rangers just need their starters to keep things close, so their bullpen and hitters can make their presence felt.

No offense to Fister’s or Scherzer’s efforts against the Yankees, but the Rangers’ offense is a whole different beast entirely. And I’ve a feeling, with Scherzer’s wildness and Fister’s need for pin-point accuracy, Verlander’s the only one that has any chance of keeping them in check. And he’d have to do so twice on three days’ rest in order to give the Tigers any kind of chance. Which means that, by my picking TEXAS IN SIX, that’s exactly what’s going to happen. So when Alex Avila hits 6 HRs, throws out Elvis Andrus in a key spot late in Game 4, and is named series MVP, just think fondly of me if you’re a Rangers fan for a brief moment before burning me in effigy.

2 comments  ::  Share or discuss  ::  2011-10-08  ::  David Raposa

Starting With The Affirmation of Man

Friday 7 October 2011 - Filed under film

The following post contains just about every possible spoiler from The Ides of March you could imagine, and then some.  ABANDON HOPE and all that jazz, and enjoy this picture of Gosling and Clooney being bros.

via Collider.com

(more…)

 ::  Share or discuss  ::  2011-10-07  ::  David Raposa

(Please) Do The Math

Tuesday 4 October 2011 - Filed under faction + sports

Since Jockish is going to stay defunct for the time being, and since The Classical isn’t around yet to reject this thing outright, here’s me trying to scratch that “blab about sports in an amusing way” itch, in reaction to Tony LaRussa’s “funny” comments regarding Moneyball, courtesy of retired Tampa-area math teacher Dolores Costanza. (Don’t mind that I might’ve forgotten the “amusing” part.)

When I was younger, things were so much simpler. A man had to work for a living, with his hands, under the auspices of Mother Nature, not in some concrete box pressing buttons on a computer for some foreign country’s benefit. Your mailman was a friendly face that you saw every day, the kind of affable fellow you could share a glass of chilled milk and some fresh apple pie with and not feel threatened. He was not some portly troll dressed in unbecoming shorts and ghastly black socks that would crassly waddle up to your stoop and leave you catalogs selling untoward things like lingerie or high-heeled shoes.

And math – oh! Wonderful, glorious math! You could show children the sublime beauty of the Phythagorean Theorem, or teach them how to divine the factors of a four-digit number, and they would be transfixed in awe at the seemingly magic sigils that the teacher would conjure upon the chalkboard. I suppose I have let that cat out of the bag. Yes, once upon a time, when I was much younger, I was a math teacher. For nearly three decades, I was a math teacher at Wentworth-Higgins Elementary, in the fine city of Tampa. It was a wonderful experience, being able to shape the minds of impressionable young Americans! And one such young American is the reason I’m writing this essay today.

I must have been a spry and vigorous forty-eight years of age, wandering the aisles of J.J. Newberry’s for some epsom salts one lazy late spring afternoon, when I first saw him. He was a rapscallion, that Anthony LaRussa. There he was, out on the sidewalk with his shoeshine kit and his rakish jet-black hair, trying to scrounge up enough change to catch the State Theatre matinee. He was eight if he was a day, and he was having a dickens of a time getting anyone to stop and take him up on his offer. So, after kind Mr. Wilkinson rang me up and sent me on my way, I went over to the young little man and gave him a shiny ten-cent piece. And I’ll never forget what happened next.

After snatching that dime from my hand without so much as a thank you, he pulled out this bundled red checkered kerchief. From the jingle-jangle it made, I knew it was brimming with the fruits of his labors. And I was correct! I watched him poke around in that pile of money for a good minute or two. He must’ve had at least three dollars in there, good enough for a matinee every day that week, and some freshly popped popcorn as well. So you can imagine my surprise when Anthony suddenly started crying! I knelt down beside the young man, with tears streaking down his quickly-reddening cheeks, and asked him what he was crying about. And he said that he didn’t have enough money for the movie!

Well! I was so taken aback by Anthony’s incorrect assumption that I actually laughed aloud! And I don’t know what came over me, but I couldn’t stop laughing. Here was this enterprising young man with more money than he knew what to do with, and he thought he was destitute! Finally, however, the novelty of this circumstance faded, and I saw him gazing upon this crazy lady laughing at his unfortunate circumstance. So then I tried to explain to him that he was actually wealthy beyond his wildest imagination (assuming, of course, all he could imagine was a picture show and maybe an ice cream float. But he was as stubborn as he was industrious, and wouldn’t take my claims as the truth that they were! He even insisted on arguing the contrary vehemently, kicking at his shoeshine box, tossing his polishing brush down the street. It was quite a tantrum. Finally – and I still, to this day, don’t know why I actually did this – I bribed Anthony. I said that, if he would let me take him to the movies this fine afternoon, and for an ice cream soda afterwards, I would show him why he was wrong. You have never seen a young man’s eyes go from glowering to glowing so quickly!  Perhaps it was that I saw a bit of myself in his unyielding insistence, or perhaps I simply wanted to.  I cannot say one way or another.

I also cannot recall the feature we attended, but I do know that chance encounter signaled the beginning of a beautiful – and wholly platonic, I assure you! – friendship. That afternoon, and every Wednesday afternoon for the next three months, we would meet and talk about my favorite subject: mathematics. Granted, I let Anthony talk as well. He was quite fond of the base-ball, a sport that I had little time or patience for. Still, I did not want to begrudge him his exuberance, so I let him prattle away about this player or that team, politely nodding along as he breathlessly recounted plays he heard on the radio with such animated glee! I can only hope that I was able to project a scintilla of such passion as I taught Anthony about the building blocks of mathematics.

When we began our weekly sessions, I had trouble telling Anthony how two dimes and a nickle equaled a quarter; when we finished that summer, however, he was able to calculate the area of a multi-sided polygon without removing the milkshake straw from his mouth! It was an astonishing transformation, and one that I was proud to be a part of. However, after that summer, I never saw Anthony again. I do not know whether he moved, or one of his parents didn’t like the idea of him spending time with someone so much older. But, whatever the reason, those magical months were the only moments I had with the young Anthony LaRussa.

That is, until many years later, when I happened to hear his name and voice on a television. The hair wasn’t quite as ebon as I had remembered, and he had certainly gotten older, but I could recognize that disagreeable shoe-shine boy anywhere. And from that moment on, I endeavored to follow his every move within the sport of base-ball, even at my advanced age – an age I will hope none of you kind readers will ask me about, thank you very much! Which is why news of his most recent outburst has upset me so! It’s not so much the profanity (though I can only imagine the filth hiding behind those pound signs!), but the wanton ignorance that bothers me so.

All this talk about taking the square footage and diving it by pi – first of all, you would need to multiply by pi in order to find the square footage of any spherical object. And besides that basic error, what he’s espousing there is nothing more than pure nonsense, and it’s dangerous for someone in his position of influence to be so careless with the facts, and especially with the figures. Mathematics, like any tool, is an implement that needs to be used with caution, with care, and with respect. And especially since in base-ball, mathematics are so paramount and such a part of its being, that respect should be given without hesitation. It saddens me to see my little man forget the lessons that I taught him those many years ago. I can only hope he sees the error of his ways, and remembers a much more innocent time, when he didn’t even know that the two dimes he had to rub together equaled twenty cents. For shame, Anthony! For shame!

Dolores Constanza lives in Clearwater, FL, with ten cats, and an iguana named Euclid.

 ::  Share or discuss  ::  2011-10-04  ::  David Raposa

2011 NLDS: St. Louis vs. Philadelphia

Saturday 1 October 2011 - Filed under sports

It goes a little something like this.

Winning 23 of your last 31 games to get into the post-season is definitely impressive. Almost as impressive as the surprisingly solid top-to-bottom line-up that the Cardinals have gotten themselves. Sure, “gritty” guys like Skip Schumacher and Nick Punto will never be left wanting for a MLB roster spot, but a guy like Schumacher is a perfectly fine starting 2B. And don’t look now, but Punto (albeit in limited playing time) has a 127 OPS+. You put him in for Schumacker, and the Cardinals field a line-up with eight 100+ OPS hitters. This includes Rafael Furcal, who’s having one of those productive non-injuried stretches that people like to see him have, and the Jon Jay / Allen Craig tandem that’s more than made up for the loss of TLR favorite Colby Rasmus. And, of course, guys like Matt Holiday and Lance Berkman and Albert Pujols, who even in a “down year” still comes up with 37 HRs.

Comparatively, the Phillies line-up looks a little skint. The names are familiar, but the performances are a little lacking – Ryan Howard posting a sub-500 SLG, Chase Utley performing like merely an above-average 2B, Raul Ibanez living down to the ridiculous contract he was given 3 years ago. It’s not necessarily a bad thing to have Shane Victorino as your best hitter (all due apologies to Hunter Pence’s 2^nd-half surge after joining Philadelphia), but it helps make Cardinal starters’ jobs that much easier. That’s especially key, since Chris Carpenter – the guy on the mound as St. Louis did what they had to do to secure their Wild Card berth – is going to be starting on three-days rest in Game 2. Jamie Garcia and Kyle Loshe have been solid starters for St. Louis this year – forgive me for trusting Garcia’s track record more than Loshe’s ridiculously low WHIP – and Edwin Jackson’s held his own since being traded to the Cardinals. But a short-rest CC and those other 3 guys will need all sorts of luck and/or chemical assistance to match up with the Phillies’ greatest strength.

Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee. Cole Hamels. All three of them are very, very, very, very, and very good. They could be facing a Cardinals line-up featuring the best players to ever take the field for St. Louis, and I’d still bet on those three. As I mentioned, the line-up LaRussa fields nowadays isn’t anything to sneer at, but while it won’t be a cakewalk, I’m guessing it will be smooth sailing. Even at diminished capacity, the Phillies can do enough damage to give these guys a lead that will stick. And, despite some late-season hiccups, it’s not as if the Phillie bullpen has had any reason to give folks a case of the cold sweats. Momentum is great and all, but talent is what really wins these things. PHILLIES IN THREE, though don’t mind me assuming that I’ll be wrong in at least one of my NLDS sweep predictions.  (Being right about being wrong: priceless.)

 ::  Share or discuss  ::  2011-10-01  ::  David Raposa

2011 NLDS: Arizona vs. Milwaukee

Saturday 1 October 2011 - Filed under sports

Miss you, pinstripes.

Yeah, the Diamondbacks. You know, the team with a 20-game winner (Ian Kennedy), a pretty solid 2^nd starter (Daniel Hudson), a not-inconcievable MVP candidate (Justin Upton), a closer with 45 saves (JJ Putz), one of the best hitting catchers in baseball (Miguel Montero), and, well, a bunch of other stuff. The right side of their infield is totally different than it was at the start of the year, their starting SS is out with a season-ending injury, and their other two starting pitchers (Joe Saunders and Josh Collmenter) are executing the sort of smoke-and-mirrors act that is bound to eventually get fiigured out. To say the Diamondbacks are top-heavy is an understatement. But, then, the 2001 Diamondbacks squad was similarly top-heavy, though that top had a lot more weight than this bunch.

And, in a non-shocker, it’ll be that soft underbelly that might be the Diamondbacks undoing. Kennedy vs. Yovani Gallardo is a wash, and the same could possibly be said for Hudson vs. this year’s version of Zach Grienke. But I have to imagine that throwing the defense-reliant lefty Sanders against a line-up that’s predominantly right-handed and Braun-y is going to yield results far less favorable than the 7 inning, 2 run performance he gave ARI against the Brewers earlier this year. And while the Brewers do have their weak spots in their lineup (hello Yuniesky Betancourt), they’re much stronger overall than the Diamondbacks are. Granted, they’d kill to have either Drew or Willie Bloomquist playing SS over the aforementioned Mr. Betancourt (AKA the guy whose on-base wouldn’t be within spitting distance of a batting-average crown in any year outside of 1968), but apart from that and Casey McGehee’s career-threatening faceplant, there’s not much happening in the Brewer line-up in terms of easy outs. Ron Roenicke’s decision to use servicable super-sub Jerry Hairson at 3B instead of McGehee helps fill in that hole. I would’ve rather try Hairston at SS, but that’s just me (and my boundless lack of interest in seeing Betancourt play baseball).

That depth disparity extends across all areas of this match-up. No offense to Putz and the equally excellent David Hernandez, but even if the Brewers hadn’t acquired K-Rod from the Mets earlier this year, their bullpen, featuring 46-save man John Axford, would be just fine. And while newish D-Backs Aaron Hill (878 OPS) and Lyle Overbay (840 OPS) have performaed admirably since their arrival in Arizona, their Milwaukee counterparts (you might’ve heard of them) are just a bit better. Unless this is a head-to-head match-up between D-Backs 3B Ryan Roberts and McGehee, I can’t see a situation where the Diamondbacks come out ahead. Granted, that’s if everything goes according to plan. Kennedy could easily outduel Gallardo, some unheralded D-Back (Gerardo Parra, say) could tap into his inner Bonds for 30 at-bats, one of the Copperfield twins could finagle their way against Shaun Marcum or Randy Wolf to a victory that sets up another Kennedy / Gallardo throwdown in the series’ final game. But I honestly don’t even see this thing getting to that “sexy” Collmenter / Wolf war of attrition scheduled for the 4^th game. BREWERS IN THREE.

 ::  Share or discuss  ::  2011-10-01  ::  David Raposa

2011 ALDS: Detroit vs. New York

Friday 30 September 2011 - Filed under sports

Mr. Baseball

The Rangers have the 2010 AL pennant. The Rays have that little thing called “momentum.” The Yankees have the benefit of being the Yankees. And the Tigers have the spectre of 2006 dogging them every step of this playoff run. No doubt the farther they make it into the post-season, the more footage they’re going to show of the team throwing the baseball all around the ballpark while watching the Cardinals win the World Series. Of course, they played just fine getting there five years ago, and there’s really no reason that it can’t be the same this year.

The key for the Tigers, and this might come as a shock to some folks, is how well the non-Verlander starters fare. Of course you can’t assume that Justin Verlander is going to win his starts, especially when he’s paired up against CC Sabathia. But assuming Verlander pitches to form, then all the Tigers need is for Doug Fister or Max Scherzer to hold server against the Ivan Novas and Freddy Garcias of the world. (Yahoo’s showing me that Rick Porcello is slated to pitch Game 4, which I doubt will happen, and probably shouldn’t even if the Tigers are up 2-1.) My money’s on the hot hand, of course, as Fister’s matched Verlander in terms of Cy-Young-worthy excellence during his 11-game Detroit career (70.1 IP, 57 Ks, only 59 total baserunners, and a snazzy 1.79 ERA) (don’t mind those 5 unearned runs). Folks might roll their eyes whenever anyone Yankee-affiliated brings up Ivan Nova as an ROY hopeful, but given he began the year with a 5.82 ERA in 21 innings of work, bringing it down to a totally respectable 3.70 for the season is at the very least worth noting. Freddy Garcia’s 3.62 ERA might also be noteworthy, but I’m choosing instead to notice the 1.36 WHIP that tells me his ERA is an aberration. At any rate, I’m going to assume that any non-CC start will feature a lot of bullpen action, with Joe Girardi doing his over-reactionary thing to somehow get the ball into Methuselah’s hands for yet another save.

Mr. Baseball?

However, getting to a place where Mo can lock it down might be trickier than some would believe. The Tigers offense isn’t nearly as balanced as the Yankees, of course, but with guys like Alex Avila (143 OPS+), Jhonny Peralta (21 HRs and a .299 average in an impressive bounceback campaign), Victor Martinez (only 12 HRs, but 40 2Bs, and a .330 AVG), and of course Miguel Cabrera (the usual overlooked silliness), Jim Leyland can string some quality hitters together. Replacing the desiccated corpse of Brandon Inge with Wilson Betemit, who’s .525 SLG shows he’s quite happy with Comerica Park’s vast expanses, is another thing to put in the PRO column. And then there are the cons: nominal lead-off hitter Austin Jackson and his pathetic .319 OBP, and whichever of Delmon Young or Magglio Ordonez ends up starting. The Tigers don’t have many holes, but they make up for that with the quality and depth.

Meanwhile, the Yankees feature two 40 HR guys (if you don’t mind me rounding up Mark Teixeira’s season total), two more over 20, a fifth that would easily have 20 if his body wasn’t falling apart, and only two starters with OBPs lower that .340 for the season (both of whom, coincidentally, are catchers). Even if A-Rod isn’t available, the Yankees will undoubtedly have plenty of guys on base, with more than a few of them crossing the plate. Verlander can keep them off the bases, and a Max Scherzer pitching to the fullest abilities can make like a poor man’s Verlander. But if Scherzer was doing that on a remotely consistent basis, he wouldn’t be sporting a 1.35 WHIP. And Fister, prior to going to Detroit, was the sort of guy that let the defense do the work for him; if that version appears, there’s going to be trouble. Maybe if those guys can scrape by and get a close game to the Alburquerque / Benoit / Valverde trifecta in the bullpen, this will be more of a series. But I can’t see the Yankees having issues with anyone besides JV, and though he’ll get his two starts, the second one will come earlier than Leyland wants, with three days rest to stave off elimination in Game 4 against CC a second time. And then they’ll have to contend with Game 5 in New York. And you can probably guess how I think that’s gonna go. Boring, and assuming Verlander goes on short rest, but probably true: YANKEES IN FIVE.

 ::  Share or discuss  ::  2011-09-30  ::  David Raposa

2011 ALDS: Tampa Bay vs. Texas

Friday 30 September 2011 - Filed under sports

Are you ready for some last-minute half-ass MLB playoff analysis from the guy that thought James Shields was going to be a free agent after this season? Here’s the first of four semi-considered blabs regarding this year’s Divisional Series. Read along, find any possible errors, and share them with your friends! (Letting me know that I screwed up isn’t a requirement, though it sure would be appreciated.)

Ahhh, the good old days.

That Joe Maddon’s a Sartre-quoting goofball makes liking the cut of his managerial jib that much easier (for folks like me). But his move to not only include rookie Matt Moore on the post-season roster, but to have him start Game 1 of the series, is totally swoon-worthy in and of itself. Though anyone that knows anything probably had a Maddon crush surprise them when David Price was included on the 2008 post-season roster. Nowadays, of course, Price is the Rays’ #2 starter, especially since presumptive ace James Shields bounced back from his BABIP-fueled fiasco of 2010 to post the best stat line of his career (just two outs shy of 250 IP, with 225 Ks , a 2.82 ERA, and a 1.043 WHIP, including ELEVEN complete games and 4 shut-outs). The man Matt Moore is replacing – Jeff Neimann – had a fine year, though Texas did clean his clock in two starts. Assuming you put your faith in small-sample stats like that; the only other teams to hit Niemann harder (based on OPS) were the White Sox … and Houston. Folks with high blood pressure should watch their salt intake, of course. But even if Moore does the opposite of what he did in his one MLB start to-date – 11 Ks in 5 innings against a not-yet-coasting Yankee team – having Jeremy Hellickson as your “mop up” guy is a nice luxury.

However, while Tampa Bay’s strength is clearly their pitching (assuming you don’t go past Joel Peralta & Kyle Farnsworth in their bullpen), Texas held their own in 9 games against TBA this year, hitting to a 772 OPS while winning 5 of the 9 match-ups. The key match-up is the Rays’ hitters against the Texas pitchers, if you put any weight into the season series numbers. The Rays slugged .316 against the likes of the soon-to-be-rich CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, and Alexi Ogando. However, Ogando’s not starting for the Rangers in this series, with Ron Washington opting to go with a 4-man rotation of Wilson, Lewis, Matt Harrison, and Derek Holland. Color me skeptical, though Ogando’s rate stats match up with Harrison’s and Holland’s, until you get to WHIP; H2O average about 12 to 13 baserunners per nine innings, while Ogando averages just over 10. It’s a negligible difference, but it’s at least something to point to should Harrison or Holland stink up the joint, and even if that happens early in a game, Ogando’s available to make like Hellickson. That said, the fact that both Hs are lefties, and the Rays best hitters are righties, might be a factor worth looking into. If the numbers suggest anything, it’s that Harrison’s reverse splits make Holland and his 765 OPS against LHB the guy that should be going long.

"It's extremely difficult."

Whether the Rangers get hurt is all up to the mercurial Tampa Bay line-up. Their current line-up – with Sean Rodriguez playing at SS, and Desmond Jennings settling into LF – is their best of the season, and it’s the line-up that fueled their wild card run, but it’s not dissimilar to the line-up that faced Texas 6 out of 9 times this season. Also, Jennings’ meteoric debut this season – you know, the debut that made Bill Simmons actually pay attention to a baseball team that wasn’t Boston-based – has been followed up by an equally meteoric descent. Still, they’re a solid top-to-bottom line-up, and if Evan Longoria can carry over any of Wednesday night’s mojo into this series (never mind BJ Upton continuing his Sept / Oct performance: 333 / 432 / 606), it could make for a more interesting series than folks might expect.

But then there’s Texas, with six starters sporting an OPS+ above 110. Including Mike Napoli’s absurd 171 OPS+ – 30 home runs in only 432 ABs! Yeah, Anaheim (and Toronto!) didn’t need that sort of help at all. I’m assuming they’ll play Napoli at 1B, and start Yorvit Torrealba at C and Michael Young as the DH, giving them their best line-up. A configuration that swaps out Torrealba for Mitch Moreland doesn’t really affect the overall numbers, but it does allow Washington to play lefty-righty matchups. Looking at this Texas roster, it’s easy (for me) to forget that this team is just about the same as the team that make it to the World Series last year, albeit with less Vlad (which is a shame, if you don’t notice his stat line this year). They have depth in their pitching rotation, they have a solid bullpen, and they even have a solid bench. Still, Tampa Bay is a not-uneven match for them, and it may come down to the “little things” that have an impact. For me, that little thing is going with Harrison in (as it stands right now) Game 4. I can see a scenario with Texas up 2-1 in that game, and coming up short in Tampa with him on the mound. If anything, I’m rooting for whatever brings up a Game 5, as that tilt will feature both aces – Wilson and Shields – pitching for their team’s lives. That means the homer-prone Shields will have to survive two starts in Arlington in order for the Rays to prevail, but stranger things have happened (see: Wednesday evening). I’m not calling the Rays a team of destiny (yet), but I am going to call this series for TAMPA BAY IN FIVE.

 ::  Share or discuss  ::  2011-09-30  ::  David Raposa